2022 Turnout Estimate

Turnout & Demographics for All 435 Congressional Districts

Echelon Insights predicts 2022 election turnout of 125,655,745, a new record for a midterm election.

Our estimate represents a continuation of the pattern of the record-breaking turnout we saw in the 2018 and 2020 elections. In 2020, we predicted a record-breaking turnout of 157.4 million, coming within 1 million votes of the final total. With primary turnout up from the 2018 cycle and and partisan energy driving turnout on both sides of the aisle, we expect this trend towards higher turnout to continue this year.

Also included with this estimate is a fully interactive district-by-district breakdown of turnout by demographic groups, as well as totals by state. These aren’t simply Census estimates of the demographics of registered voters or adults in a district, but figures adjusted for the population of voters who will cast votes on or before November 8th, powered by Echelon’s Demographic Engine. A full description of the methodology behind these numbers can be found with our 2020 estimates.

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